The FAO Dairy Price Index has demonstrated substantial appreciation over the past two decades, beginning at 77.2 index points in 2005 and reaching 146.7 index points in 2025, representing a total increase of 69.5 index points or 90.0% overall. This upward trajectory translates to a compound annual growth rate of 3.3%, indicating consistent long-term expansion despite interim volatility. The index experienced significant fluctuations throughout the period, with the lowest point recorded at 73.1 index points in 2006 and the peak reaching 149.5 index points in 2022. The most dramatic movement occurred between 2006 and 2007, when prices surged 67.5% from the 2006 low to 122.4 index points, highlighting the commodity's susceptibility to rapid shifts. The broader trend from 2005 to 2025 reflects fundamental structural changes in global dairy markets and demand patterns.
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Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
The Claight forecast extends fao dairy price index toward its 10-year average of 113.81 using partial mean reversion (22% per year), a neutral baseline. Global food prices track harvests, energy and freight costs and export policy; this is a baseline, not a point call.
Data table
| Year | index (2014-2016=100) |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 77.2 |
| 2006 | 73.1 |
| 2007 | 122.4 |
| 2008 | 132.3 |
| 2009 | 91.4 |
| 2010 | 111.9 |
| 2011 | 129.9 |
| 2012 | 111.7 |
| 2013 | 140.9 |
| 2014 | 130.2 |
| 2015 | 87.1 |
| 2016 | 82.7 |
| 2017 | 108.0 |
| 2018 | 107.3 |
| 2019 | 102.8 |
| 2020 | 101.8 |
| 2021 | 119.6 |
| 2022 | 149.5 |
| 2023 | 123.7 |
| 2024 | 129.7 |
| 2025 | 146.7 |
Source: FAO Food Price Index, accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.