East Africa Refined Petroleum Products Market: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The East Africa refined petroleum products market spans the downstream energy supply chain across a region where demand is dominated by road transport, aviation, and household energy needs. Kenya and Tanzania together account for the largest share of regional petroleum product imports, supported by major port infrastructure at Mombasa and Dar es Salaam that serve as distribution hubs for landlocked neighbors. Official regional statistics agencies, including the Energy Regulators Association of East Africa, track physical volume data, measured in liters or barrels, rather than monetary market valuations, which is why independent research estimates compile the USD market figures.

• •The market includes gasoline, diesel, kerosene (jet fuel and illuminating), fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas
• •Most East African countries rely on imports for the majority of their refined petroleum products due to limited domestic refining capacity
• •The Northern Corridor connecting Mombasa to inland countries handles the largest physical volumes of regional petroleum trade

Sustained economic growth and rapid urbanization across East Africa continue to push up demand for refined petroleum products, particularly diesel used for both transport and on-site electricity generation. Infrastructure development, including expanding road networks, industrial zones, and growing aviation sectors, further supports consistent consumption growth at around 3% annually. At the same time, planned and ongoing refining investments aim to reduce the region's long-standing dependence on imported refined fuels, which currently accounts for the vast majority of supply.

• •Population growth exceeding 2.5% annually across the region drives increased transport and household energy demand
• •Limited domestic refining capacity has historically made East Africa a net importer of refined products from global suppliers
• •Government energy access programs are expanding LPG and kerosene use in rural and peri-urban households

Kenya and Tanzania represent the two largest refined petroleum products markets, supported by major port infrastructure at Mombasa and Dar es Salaam that serve as regional distribution hubs for inland countries including Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. Ethiopia's large population and growing manufacturing sector make it a significant and expanding market, though its landlocked position adds logistics complexity and cost. Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi are smaller but growing markets, increasingly supplied through the Northern Corridor pipeline and road networks radiating from Mombasa.

• •The port of Mombasa serves as the primary entry point for refined products destined for Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi via the Northern Corridor
• •Tanzania's Dar es Salaam port handles growing volumes as the country expands its refining and distribution capacity
• •Ethiopia's market is expanding rapidly as industrial and transport demand grows, though it relies on Djibouti and Sudan for port access

What are the recent trends and outlook?

Over the coming decade, the East Africa refined petroleum products market is expected to maintain steady growth of approximately 3% per year, supported by continued economic expansion, infrastructure development, and government energy access initiatives. The commissioning of new regional refining capacity, including the Dangote Lamu refinery, could gradually reduce import dependence and reshape regional trade flows toward more intra-regional supply. However, global energy transition policies, including accelerating adoption of electric mobility and cleaner cooking alternatives, may moderate long-term growth rates in certain product segments over the longer horizon.

• •The Dangote Lamu refinery, with planned capacity exceeding 100,000 barrels per day, is designed to serve both domestic and regional markets and reduce import dependency
• •Regional regulators through the Energy Regulators Association of East Africa are working toward greater market harmonization and cross-border petroleum trade facilitation
• •The global shift toward electric vehicles and renewable energy could gradually reduce fossil fuel demand growth over the longer term