Crude Oil - Dubai/Oman: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The Dubai/Oman crude complex is the price-discovery hub for the sour, medium-sweet Middle East barrel flow that underpins roughly 30% of seaborne crude trade. The wellhead-realised value of the Dubai/Oman basket sits at approximately USD 285 billion in 2025 (base year), held in a market that is structurally tight on the up-cycle and oversupplied on the down-cycle. Our base case projects a 3.2% CAGR through 2032, taking the basket to roughly USD 355 billion in wellhead-realised value by 2032. The single most consequential structural shift in the category since our 2024 update is the formal unwinding of the OPEC+ voluntary cuts, beginning May 2025 and accelerating through 2026. The Brent-Dubai exchange of futures for swaps (EFS), which traded in a USD 0.50-2.00/bbl band through most of 2022-2024, has structurally widened to a USD 1.50-3.50/bbl band on a 12-month trailing basis as US Gulf l

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