The World Cotton A Index demonstrated substantial volatility and upward appreciation over the analyzed period. Beginning at 1.22 $/kg in 2005, the index climbed to 1.80 $/kg by 2026, representing a total increase of 0.58 $/kg or 47.9% across 21 years. This long-term growth translates to a compound annual growth rate of 1.9%, indicating steady underlying expansion despite intermediate fluctuations. The price trajectory peaked at 3.33 $/kg in 2011 while the low point occurred at the 2005 baseline of 1.22 $/kg. The most significant single-year movement occurred between 2009 and 2010, when the index surged 65.1% from 1.38 $/kg to 2.28 $/kg. This dramatic shift highlights the market sensitivity to supply and demand dynamics during the period. The overall trend reflects cotton increasing as a globally traded commodity.
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Connect to an analyst →Price outlook to 2030
World Bank forecast OFFICIAL
The World Bank projects cotton, a index at 1.65 $/kg in 2026 and 1.75 in 2027.
Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Claight forecasts below consensus for cotton A Index through 2030 due to emerging supply surplus and shifting demand patterns. Increased cotton production capacity in key growing regions, particularly Brazil and West Africa, is set to exceed demand growth through the forecast period. At the same time, synthetic fiber substitution continues gaining market share in textile manufacturing, with polyester particularly competitive at current price levels. Global inventories are expected to build gradually, applying downward pressure. Unlike the World Bank's more sanguine view, we see structural oversupply developing as high prices in 2021-2022 incentivized significant acreage expansion that will continue to impact the market for several years. Demand growth remains muted by economic headwinds and efficiency gains in textile production.
Data table
| Year | $/kg |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 1.22 |
| 2006 | 1.27 |
| 2007 | 1.40 |
| 2008 | 1.57 |
| 2009 | 1.38 |
| 2010 | 2.28 |
| 2011 | 3.33 |
| 2012 | 1.97 |
| 2013 | 1.99 |
| 2014 | 1.83 |
| 2015 | 1.55 |
| 2016 | 1.64 |
| 2017 | 1.84 |
| 2018 | 2.01 |
| 2019 | 1.72 |
| 2020 | 1.58 |
| 2021 | 2.23 |
| 2022 | 2.86 |
| 2023 | 2.09 |
| 2024 | 1.91 |
| 2025 | 1.71 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.