Commercial Real Estate in the US: Market Size, Businesses & Forecast 2026

The Commercial Real Estate industry in the US encompasses the development, ownership, leasing, and management of properties utilized for business, retail, industrial, and multifamily residential purposes. The industry is currently recovering from recent macroeconomic headwinds, characterized by stabilizing property values and a strong pipeline of financing activity moving into 2026. This positive shift is driven by expanding transactional demand, as evidenced by the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasting total commercial mortgage originations to increase 27 percent to $805.5 billion in 2026, up from an expected $633.7 billion in 2025.

Industry snapshot

Key public data points

Historical & forecast

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What does the Commercial Real Estate in the US industry cover?

The commercial real estate industry consists of economic activities involving the leasing, rental, management, and transaction execution of non-residential and multi-tenant income-producing properties. These property classifications primarily span office spaces, industrial warehouses, retail outlets, medical facilities, data centers, and multi-unit residential complexes.

• •Classified under NAICS Code 531, which encapsulates activities across real estate sales, brokerage, and third-party property management.
• •Encompasses critical digital infrastructure assets, including data centers, which accounted for approximately 14% of CBRE Group, Inc.'s core EBITDA in 2025.
• •Excludes single-family residential sales but includes commercial multifamily lending structures regulated by federal housing finance bodies.

Who operates in the industry and how is it structured?

The industry's market structure is diverse, comprising independent local brokerages alongside massive multinational service providers that dominate institutional capital markets. Operators function as facilitators of capital flow, property management consultants, and transactional agents connecting institutional investors with corporate occupiers.

• •Domestic operations of multinational giants represent a significant share of institutional deal flows, with the United States generating 69% of Cushman & Wakefield Ltd.'s total revenue in 2025.
• •Market participants are categorized by specialized service lines, where transactional advisory such as leasing and capital markets accounted for 21% and 8% of Cushman & Wakefield's 2025 revenue respectively.
• •Regional bank lenders and institutional REITs act as the core asset holders and financing conduits underpinning these market operators.

What drives demand in the industry?

Demand within the commercial real estate sector is highly sensitive to corporate hiring patterns, industrial logistics needs, consumer retail spending, and the broader interest rate environment. Stabilizing property values and the necessity of refinancing upcoming debt maturities serve as immediate operational drivers across all primary sectors.

• •A steepening Treasury yield curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield projected by the MBA to average 4.2 percent in 2026, influences commercial borrowers to pivot toward shorter-term financing structures.
• •Corporate scale and logistics expansions fuel enterprise demand, with large-scale services providers tailoring integrated solutions to support up to 90% of Fortune 100 companies in 2025.
• •General macroeconomic resilience sustains systemic service demand, reflected in the U.S. Census Bureau's reporting of a 2.7 percent year-over-year increase in total real estate, rental, and leasing revenue for the first quarter of 2026.

Who are the notable companies in the industry?

Competition in the US market is intense, concentrated at the institutional tier where a handful of publicly traded companies leverage global footprints to capture multi-national mandates. These Tier-1 real estate services firms actively compete across property management, workplace experience, valuation, and capital placement.

• •CBRE Group, Inc. operates as the world's largest commercial real estate services and investment firm, surpassing a record $40 billion in revenue in 2025.
• •Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. stands as one of the top three global real estate service providers by revenue, generating $10.3 billion in total revenue in 2025.
• •Jones Lang LaSalle Incorporated (JLL) and Colliers International Group Inc. represent the other major publicly traded global operators actively driving institutional brokerage and facility management within the US.
• •Firms continuously scale up competitive capabilities via consolidation, as illustrated by CBRE Group, Inc. acquiring full ownership of flexible workspace operator Industrious in 2025.

What are the recent trends and outlook?

The outlook for the industry points toward growth and transaction normalization, moving past the prolonged cyclical slowdown brought on by federal monetary tightening. A substantial volume of maturing older-vintage debt is expected to accelerate recapitalization and refinancing activity through the next two fiscal years.

• •According to Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts, multifamily mortgage origination volume alone is expected to expand to $399.2 billion in 2026 from $330.6 billion in 2025.
• •Delinquency rates across various property types and capital sources experienced modest upward pressure between the first and third quarters of 2025, a trend expected to persist primarily for older-vintage loans.
• •AI and technology infrastructures have emerged as key growth vectors, driving substantial deployment of capital toward critical infrastructure and local facilities management segments.

How is the industry regulated?

Commercial real estate entities face strict oversight covering systemic financial risk, transparent accounting standards, and property-level zoning laws. Regulatory shifts focus heavily on banking capital requirements, loan reporting classifications, and standardized financial disclosures for publicly listed corporations.

• •The Federal Reserve mandates rigorous reporting standards for commercial bank balance sheets, benchmarking data against revised Call Reports in 2026 to ensure transparency in total outstanding commercial real estate loans.
• •The Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC) updated reporting instructions for Reports of Condition and Income (Forms 031, 041, and 051), prompting commercial banks to reclassify billions in loans to nondepository financial institutions in 2025 and 2026.
• •Publicly traded commercial real estate firms must file comprehensive annual audited financial reviews under SEC Form 10-K guidelines to assure market compliance and accurate shareholder evaluation.

Government, statistical and trade sources used for this Claight analysis.

• Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Commercial/Multifamily Finance Forecast 2026 ·
• US Census Bureau Quarterly Selected Services Estimates 2026 ·
• Federal Reserve Statistical Release H.8 (Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States) 2026 ·
• CBRE Group, Inc. SEC Form 10-K (Annual Report 2025) ·
• Cushman & Wakefield Ltd. SEC Form 10-K (Annual Report 2025)