Coconut oil prices on the world market have demonstrated substantial appreciation over the past two decades. The price per metric ton rose from 617.0 dollars in 2005 to 2,215 dollars in 2026, representing a total increase of 1,598 dollars per metric ton or 258.9 percent growth across the 21 year period. This upward trajectory translates to a compound annual growth rate of 6.3 percent. The market experienced notable volatility with a low point of 606.9 dollars per metric ton in 2006 and a peak of 2,480 dollars per metric ton in 2025. The most dramatic price movement occurred between 2024 and 2025, when values surged 63.3 percent from 1,519 dollars per metric ton to 2,480 dollars per metric ton. This single year advance stands as the largest percentage increase in the historical record.
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Connect to an analyst →Price outlook to 2030
World Bank forecast OFFICIAL
The World Bank projects coconut oil at 2,301 $/mt in 2026 and 2,111 in 2027.
Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Claight forecasts coconut oil prices declining below consensus from 2027 onward due to structural oversupply pressures. New production capacity in Southeast Asia and West Africa is coming online, particularly from Indonesia and the Ivory Coast, with projects designed to increase global supply by approximately 3-4% annually through 2030. Concurrently, demand growth is weakening as palm oil substitution remains cost-effective, and food manufacturers continue reformulating products to reduce saturated fat content. Additionally, inventory levels are building across key markets despite strong biodiesel demand in Europe, which appears to have peaked. The 2025 high of $2480 was unsustainable given the underlying fundamentals and likely represented speculative overshoot. Our 2026 forecast of $2200 remains anchored to current levels and World Bank estimates, but we anticipate a multi-year correction as supply catches up with demand.
Data table
| Year | $/mt |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 617.0 |
| 2006 | 606.9 |
| 2007 | 918.9 |
| 2008 | 1,224 |
| 2009 | 725.4 |
| 2010 | 1,124 |
| 2011 | 1,730 |
| 2012 | 1,111 |
| 2013 | 939.6 |
| 2014 | 1,281 |
| 2015 | 1,104 |
| 2016 | 1,482 |
| 2017 | 1,651 |
| 2018 | 996.7 |
| 2019 | 735.7 |
| 2020 | 1,010 |
| 2021 | 1,637 |
| 2022 | 1,635 |
| 2023 | 1,075 |
| 2024 | 1,519 |
| 2025 | 2,480 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.