Cocoa prices have demonstrated significant appreciation over the 19-year period from 2005 to 2024, increasing from $1.54 per kilogram to $7.33 per kilogram, representing a total increase of $5.79 or 376.6%. This growth trajectory equates to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.6%, indicating substantial long-term price appreciation. The most dramatic single-year increase occurred between 2023 and 2024, with prices surging by 123.4% from $3.28 to $7.33 per kilogram, marking the largest single move in the observed period. The data reveals a clear upward trend, with 2024 prices not only reaching the highest point in the series but also more than quadrupling the starting value from 2005, highlighting substantial volatility and consistent growth in the global cocoa market over nearly two decades.
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World Bank forecast OFFICIAL
The World Bank projects cocoa falling to $3.80/kg in 2026 (about -51% year on year) and $4.20/kg in 2027 as West African supply recovers from the 2023-24 shortfall.
Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
We project cocoa prices will fall below consensus as new production capacity comes online after the recent price spike. The 2024-2025 surge to record highs triggered significant investment in West African production and alternative growing regions. Additionally, the chocolate industry is accelerating substitution efforts with fillers and alternative ingredients as part of cost optimization strategies. Inventory levels, which have been depleted, are expected to rebuild by 2027 as production catches up with demand. While weather disruptions remain a risk, the structural response to high prices will weigh heavily on the market through 2030. We see the 2026 pullback as the beginning of a multi-year normalization toward the 10-year average of 2.41, diverging from consensus which underestimates the supply response.
Recent developments
Cocoa has cooled from its 2024 record. Prices eased to around $4,900 per tonne in early July 2026, off a five-month peak near $5,250 hit on June 25, as improved supply flows and near two-year-high ICE inventories tempered shortage fears. West African arrivals are running well above last season, with Ivory Coast port arrivals up 18.4 percent year on year, but heavy June rains across Ivory Coast and Ghana disrupted harvesting and raised brown-rot disease risk, and some analysts see 2026/27 Ivory Coast output falling toward 1.7 to 1.8 million tonnes. On June 16 2026 Ghana and Ivory Coast signed a joint declaration to align farm-gate prices in dollar terms and harmonise crop calendars from the 2026/27 season.
Data table
| Year | $/kg |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 1.54 |
| 2006 | 1.59 |
| 2007 | 1.95 |
| 2008 | 2.58 |
| 2009 | 2.89 |
| 2010 | 3.13 |
| 2011 | 2.98 |
| 2012 | 2.39 |
| 2013 | 2.44 |
| 2014 | 3.06 |
| 2015 | 3.14 |
| 2016 | 2.89 |
| 2017 | 2.03 |
| 2018 | 2.29 |
| 2019 | 2.34 |
| 2020 | 2.37 |
| 2021 | 2.43 |
| 2022 | 2.39 |
| 2023 | 3.28 |
| 2024 | 7.33 |
| 2025 | 7.80 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.