Coal - Thermal: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global thermal coal market sits at approximately USD 897.4 billion in 2025 (base year), operating in a structurally balanced state between declining demand in developed economies and continued reliance in developing regions, with India and Southeast Asia emerging as the primary growth drivers amid accelerating renewable energy transitions. > **Analyst Take.** The consensus view that thermal coal demand will decline by 15-20% by 2030 underestimates the structural role coal plays in energy security in emerging markets. Our analysis suggests a more gradual 3-5% decline through 2032, driven by continued new builds in India and Southeast Asia offsetting retirements in Europe and North America. Buyers who positioned for rapid coal de-mise will face significant procurement challenges as demand proves more resilient than expected.

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