Chicken Price

This price series captures the average wholesale cost of ready-to-cook whole chicken or equivalent cut weight per kilogram across major producing and consuming regions, often benchmarked against USDA or FAO composite indices. It is not a retail shelf price; rather, it reflects the first major commercial transaction after processing. The metric strips out packaging, branding, and retail markups to isolate the underlying agricultural commodity value of poultry meat.

• •Broiler meat at wholesale/farm-gate level, expressed in USD per kg
• •Reflects commodity-grade chicken, not branded retail cuts
• •Widely used as a proxy for global poultry inflation

The dominant cost driver is formulated feed, which accounts for roughly 55–70% of total live-chicken production costs. Corn and soybean meal price volatility is therefore transmitted almost mechanically into chicken prices with a lag of several weeks to a few months. Other structural drivers include day-old chick placement rates, flock mortality, disease outbreaks (e.g., avian influenza), and regulatory changes around animal welfare or environmental compliance that alter production costs or capacity.

• •Feed-grain prices (corn, soy, wheat) are the single largest variable cost
• •Disease outbreaks can cause abrupt supply shocks and regional price spikes
• •Energy, labor, and processing regulations add secondary cost pressure

After multi-year highs in 2022–2023, when grain prices surged on the back of the Ukraine conflict and supply chain disruptions, chicken prices have trended lower as feed costs normalized and global broiler production expanded. The current figure near $1.77/kg sits well below peak levels, reflecting improved supply conditions and easing input inflation. However, the decline has been uneven across regions, with some importing countries facing higher landed costs due to currency depreciation and freight rate fluctuations.

• •Peak prices in 2022–2023 driven by high grain and energy costs
• •Downward trend in 2024–2025 as feed markets stabilized and output grew
• •Regional variation persists due to currency, trade, and logistics factors

On the supply side, the poultry industry responds relatively quickly to price signals because broiler flocks have short production cycles of 6–8 weeks from hatch to slaughter, allowing producers to adjust output faster than most red-meat sectors. Demand for chicken remains structurally strong due to its relatively low cost per unit of protein, though demand elasticity varies by income level and cultural dietary preferences. Economic slowdowns can dampen demand in middle-income markets, while protein diversification trends in developing economies continue to support long-run growth in chicken consumption.

• •Short production cycle enables rapid supply adjustments
• •Strong and growing global demand, especially in emerging economies
• •Demand sensitive to income levels and relative price of competing proteins

Barring major grain price shocks or new disease events, chicken prices are expected to remain in the $1.70–$2.10/kg range over the next 12–18 months, supported by efficient production systems and steady global protein demand. Feed cost trajectories will be the most influential variable, with corn and soybean outlooks tied to weather patterns in key growing regions. Structural tailwinds—including population growth, urbanization, and continued substitution away from more expensive meats—suggest a broadly stable to slightly rising baseline for chicken commodity prices over the medium term.

• •Stable to moderately rising baseline expected, assuming no major supply shocks
• •Feed cost outlook remains the key upside/downside risk
• •Long-term demand growth underpinned by protein substitution trends