Bunker Fuel - VLSFO: Market Size & Forecast 2026

The global marine bunker fuel market sits at approximately USD 120 billion in 2025 (base year), with VLSFO representing roughly 60-65% of total bunker fuel volume by mass. The market is defined by a structurally tight balance between IMO 2020 compliance mandates, refinery capacity constraints, and a demand growth profile running at roughly 3% annually, which is the boring real-world number, not the 8-15% CAGR some alternative fuel narratives imply. VLSFO trades in a range of USD 580-720/MT globally, with the 2026-Q2 indicative benchmark in the USD 610/MT band for US Gulf, EUR 565/MT for ARA, and USD 595/MT for Asia. These prices track Brent crude with a typical USD 5-8/bbl spread differential, meaning crude at USD 85-95/bbl lands VLSFO in the USD 585-620/MT band. Anyone who has covered this market for five years knows that bunker margins compress when crude rallies and expand only modest

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