Barley prices exhibited notable volatility between 2005 and 2020 while demonstrating minimal long-term growth. Starting at 95.1 $/mt in 2005, the market reached 97.6 $/mt by 2020, representing a total change of just 2.52 $/mt over fifteen years. This equates to a modest 2.7% increase with a compound annual growth rate of only 0.2%. The price trajectory featured substantial swings, with the low of 95.1 $/mt in 2005 contrasting sharply against the peak of 240.3 $/mt in 2012. The most dramatic shift occurred between 2006 and 2007, when prices surged 47.8% from 116.6 $/mt to 172.4 $/mt. This substantial single move underscores the market's sensitivity to external factors despite the overall stability across the full period.
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Connect to an analyst →Price outlook to 2030
World Bank forecast OFFICIAL
The World Bank projects barley at 172.0 $/mt in 2026 and 174.0 in 2027.
Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
While we anchor 2026 near both current levels and World Bank estimates, we see significant upside potential for 2027-2029 due to structural supply constraints. Global barley inventories remain at multi-decade lows following consecutive production shortfalls in key growing regions. Climate volatility has reduced yield potential in traditional breadbaskets, with EU and Black Sea regions facing persistent drought conditions. Demand remains resilient from livestock sectors recovering from disease outbreaks and expanding biofuel mandates in Asia. While new capacity is coming online in Australia and North America, it faces multi-year implementation delays due to infrastructure bottlenecks and regulatory hurdles. Unlike the World Bank's modest forecast, we see a reversion toward historical price norms as supply-demand rebalancing unfolds, followed by stabilization at premium levels reflecting structural climate risks to production.
Data table
| Year | $/mt |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 95.1 |
| 2006 | 116.6 |
| 2007 | 172.4 |
| 2008 | 200.5 |
| 2009 | 128.3 |
| 2010 | 158.4 |
| 2011 | 207.2 |
| 2012 | 240.3 |
| 2013 | 203.0 |
| 2014 | 145.9 |
| 2015 | 121.3 |
| 2016 | 103.9 |
| 2017 | 97.7 |
| 2018 | 125.9 |
| 2019 | 128.1 |
| 2020 | 97.6 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.