Banana prices in the US market demonstrated substantial upward momentum from 2005 to 2026, rising from 0.60 $/kg to 1.18 $/kg. This trajectory represents a total increase of 0.57 $/kg, equivalent to 95.4% growth across the 21-year period. The compound annual growth rate reached 3.2%, indicating consistent price appreciation over time. The price range fluctuated between a low of 0.60 $/kg in 2005 and a peak of 1.60 $/kg in 2023. The most significant single-year movement occurred between 2007 and 2008, when prices surged by 24.9% from 0.68 $/kg to 0.84 $/kg. This particular jump stands out as the largest single move within the dataset, highlighting the potential for notable short-term volatility even as the longer-term trend maintained a steady upward course.
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Connect to an analyst →Price outlook to 2030
World Bank forecast OFFICIAL
The World Bank projects banana, us at 1.10 $/kg in 2026 and 1.12 in 2027.
Claight forecast CLAIGHT VIEW
Claight forecasts banana prices will rise above consensus through 2030 due to accelerating TR4 Panama disease outbreaks in Latin America, the primary export region. While consensus acknowledges climate risks, we believe the pace of disease spread is underappreciated. TR4 is now firmly established in major producing countries like Colombia and Ecuador with no commercially viable resistant varieties in commercial scale. This will lead to significant yield losses and higher production costs as farmers implement more intensive disease management protocols. Additionally, maritime logistics costs remain structurally elevated post-pandemic with limited capacity expansion. These factors will more than offset any efficiency gains from new varietal development, creating a persistent supply constraint. Our forecasts reflect this structural supply shock rather than the more gradual consensus view, which underestimates the disease's spread rate and impact on production economics.
Data table
| Year | $/kg |
|---|---|
| 2005 | 0.60 |
| 2006 | 0.68 |
| 2007 | 0.68 |
| 2008 | 0.84 |
| 2009 | 0.85 |
| 2010 | 0.87 |
| 2011 | 0.97 |
| 2012 | 0.98 |
| 2013 | 0.92 |
| 2014 | 0.93 |
| 2015 | 0.96 |
| 2016 | 1.00 |
| 2017 | 1.08 |
| 2018 | 1.15 |
| 2019 | 1.14 |
| 2020 | 1.22 |
| 2021 | 1.21 |
| 2022 | 1.49 |
| 2023 | 1.60 |
| 2024 | 1.23 |
| 2025 | 1.10 |
Source: World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook (Pink Sheet), accessed 2026-07-04. Licence: CC BY 4.0. Claight analysis based on this data.