Australia Refined Petroleum Products Market Size, Share and Forecast Trends - Growth Analysis and Outlook Report 2026-2030

Australia's refined petroleum products market generated revenue of approximately USD 25.0 billion in 2025 and is expected to compound at roughly 3.5% per year to 2030. Domestic output is concentrated in a small number of refineries operated by Ampol, ExxonMobil, BP/Viva Energy, and Shell, supplemented by significant imports of diesel, jet fuel and gasoline. The Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water tracks monthly volumes, while the ACCC publishes quarterly reviews covering prices, margins, and international competitiveness.

• •Market size ~USD 25.0 billion in 2025 with a 3.5% CAGR to 2030
• •Core segments are automotive fuels, marine bunkers and aviation turbine fuel
• •Australia imports a meaningful share of refined products alongside domestic refining

Demand is supported by Australia's large landmass, dispersed population centres and freight-heavy economy, all of which depend on liquid fuels for road, rail, mining and aviation activity. Refinery closures at Geelong and Kurnell tightened domestic supply, lifting reliance on imports and underpinning product prices. Rising diesel consumption in mining and agriculture, plus jet fuel recovery in aviation, continues to pull volumes higher despite electrification in passenger vehicles.

• •Mining, agriculture and freight remain diesel-intensive and resilient
• •Aviation fuel volumes are rebounding toward pre-pandemic levels
• •Reduced domestic refining has shifted the supply mix toward imports

By product type, automotive fuels (motor gasoline and diesel) represent the largest revenue pool, followed by aviation turbine fuel and marine bunkers, with LPG, lubricants and bitumen forming smaller niches. Geographically, New South Wales and Victoria account for the bulk of consumption due to population density, while Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory add significant diesel demand from resources and primary industries. Refining capacity is concentrated at Geelong, Altona, Bulwer Island, Lytton and Kurnell-era sites now converted to import terminals.

• •Automotive fuels dominate volumes, with diesel share rising
• •NSW and Victoria lead demand; WA and Queensland anchor diesel-heavy regions
• •Refining footprint has consolidated to fewer coastal sites in VIC and QLD

What are the recent trends and outlook?

Australia is currently at Level 2 of the four-level National Fuel Security Plan, reflecting tighter stockholding requirements and ongoing concern about import dependence. Refinery-to-terminal conversions (Kurnell, Geelong) are increasing storage capacity but reducing domestic conversion, which will keep net imports elevated. Over the medium term, EV adoption in light vehicles is expected to erode gasoline demand growth, while diesel and jet fuel remain structurally supported by industry and aviation through 2030.

• •Government holding targets are tightening minimum fuel stocks
• •Refinery conversions are expanding import-linked terminal capacity
• •Gasoline demand growth is set to slow as EV share rises