Africa Oil Refining Market Size and Share - Growth Analysis Report and Forecast Trends 2026-2030

Africa's refining sector processes crude into transportation fuels, industrial fuels, and feedstocks, much of which is consumed domestically or exported within the continent. The regional market is estimated at $207.051 billion in 2026, with a forecast compound annual growth rate of about 6.18% through 2031. Output is shaped by a mix of national oil companies, joint ventures, and private operators running both legacy refineries and newer mega-projects.

Rising vehicle ownership, urbanization, and industrial activity are lifting consumption of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel across Africa, pulling demand for refined products above what older refineries can supply. Governments are simultaneously funding new capacity and rehabilitating existing plants to reduce import dependence and stabilize fuel prices. Refinery upgrades aimed at meeting stricter product specifications, including lower-sulfur fuels, are also reshaping the asset base.

The market is typically segmented by geography and by refinery type, with sub-categories for crude distillation, hydroprocessing, catalytic cracking, and other secondary units. North African refining hubs in Algeria and Egypt leverage proximity to Mediterranean trade routes and relatively large domestic markets, while West African capacity centered on Nigeria anchors regional supply. East and Southern Africa remain more reliant on imports, although projects in countries such as Uganda and Mozambique are set to add capacity and feedstock diversity.

What are the recent trends and outlook?

The outlook through 2031 points to a meaningful lift in African refining capacity as several large projects progress, alongside deeper integration with petrochemicals to capture higher margins. At the same time, refineries are under pressure to decarbonize through energy efficiency, electrification, biofuels co-processing, and carbon capture, while still serving rising fuel demand. The balance between energy security goals and the global energy transition will shape which projects move forward and how existing assets are retrofitted.

Named companies and quantified developments shaping the Africa Oil Refining Market market.

• •Dangote refinery - The Dangote refinery in Nigeria has ramped up toward its full 650,000 barrel per day capacity.